The market appears to continue its shot up in a straight arrow so one must ask where all the new money is coming from. I have two possible theories:
1) Fund managers - I am guessing/assuming that people generally do not change their 401k contributions even during recessions. One would think with unemployment rising, 401k contributions would be down. But who knows, maybe people increase their contributions because they think stocks are "cheap." Regardless people generally cannot pull out of their 401ks until retirement, and most are not verse enough in investments to be actively going in and out of funds (plus the fact that they put in incentives to prevent such actions).
So the fund managers who were scared to heck during March when Armageddon was looming, and in April and May when they were scared of valuations, are in a mad rush to chase performance.
2) Retail money - when someone suggests that "dumb retail money" is entering the market right now I have to reply with the question "with what money?" But then I am reminded of the recent trend that savings rates have been steadily increasing. If it is true that retail money is entering the market, it makes perfect sense. Spending goes down => savings goes up => savings yields are around 1% => stocks look "cheap" => retail money buys stocks.
Who is buying this market?
Monday, August 24, 2009
by
Ronestar
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